Sun Bae Kim, general manager of the Asian-Pacific
Economic Research Institute of Goldman Saches, recently
disclosed Goldman Saches prediction that the impact of
SARS on China would be temporary and might last for around
three months, but not for a long time as some people
estimated.
A latest report presented by Gold
Saches noted that although China had cut the growth rate of
its GDP from a projected 7.5 percent to 7 percent, it
remained optimistic about Chinas economy and believed
that Chinas economy would maintain steady and rapid
development.
Sun Bae Kim presented the
following two reasons for the optimistic prediction made by
Goldman Saches:
First, the fact that SARS has
been put under effective control in Hong Kong suggests that
it will not take a long time for the mainland to curb the
epidemic. It took Hong Kong a bit more than a month to
reduce the number of SARS cases to a one-digit figure after
the outbreak of the epidemic in March. The number of SARS
cases in southern China has already plummeted significantly.
At present, the life and work in Hong Kong have returned to
normal, and the operation of local hotels, markets and
public traffic has been revived. The Chinese Government has
attached great importance to controlling the disease and
adopted many effective measures. This indicated that SARS
will be put under control on Chinas mainland in a
relatively short period of time.
Second, the
Yangtze River Delta, the main destination of foreign
investment in China, is little affected by SARS. China lacks
first-rate medical equipment. But this will not impede China
from controlling the spread of SARS. Viet Nam has become the
first country to successfully control SARS as announced by
the World Health Organization. Viet Nams medical
equipment is not necessarily better than that of China. SARS
mainly affects Chinas service and tourism sectors.
These sectors, however, account for only a small proportion
of the Chinese economy (3-5 percent of
GDP).
Sun Bae Kim said although the risks
brought about by SARS should not be ignored, overreaction to
the disease is unnecessary.